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Abstract Studies of wintertime air quality in the North China Plain (NCP) show that particulate‐nitrate pollution persists despite rapid reduction in NO_xemissions. This intriguing NO_x‐nitrate relationship may originate from non‐linear nitrate‐formation chemistry, but it is unclear which feedback mechanisms dominate in NCP. In this study, we re‐interpret the wintertime observations of¹⁷O excess of nitrate (∆¹⁷O(NO₃⁻)) in Beijing using the GEOS‐Chem (GC) chemical transport model to estimate the importance of various nitrate‐production pathways and how their contributions change with the intensity of haze events. We also analyze the relationships between other metrics of NO_ychemistry and [PM_2.5] in observations and model simulations. We find that the model on average has a negative bias of −0.9‰ and −36% for ∆¹⁷O(NO₃⁻) and [O_x,major] (≡ [O₃] + [NO₂] + [p‐NO₃⁻]), respectively, while overestimating the nitrogen oxidation ratio ([NO₃⁻]/([NO₃⁻] + [NO₂])) by +0.12 in intense haze. The discrepancies become larger in more intense haze. We attribute the model biases to an overestimate of NO₂‐uptake on aerosols and an underestimate in wintertime O₃concentrations. Our findings highlight a need to address uncertainties related to heterogeneous chemistry of NO₂in air‐quality models. The combined assessment of observations and model results suggest that N₂O₅uptake in aerosols and clouds is the dominant nitrate‐production pathway in wintertime Beijing, but its rate is limited by ozone under high‐NO_x‐high‐PM_2.5conditions. Nitrate production rates may continue to increase as long as [O₃] increases despite reduction in [NO_x], creating a negative feedback that reduces the effectiveness of air pollution mitigation.